shirfleur 1's Journal, 13 Mar 20

Covid-19

I've been doing a great deal of research, reading and listening to what the scientists have to say, not the politicians and the pundits.

The lack of testing is the biggest of many problems in the USA, so we have no idea how many cases there are here currently, and we don't know where they are. Experts predict that 65%+ of the population of this country will contract the virus, and 20% of those people will become seriously ill. 65% of 230M is 149.5M times 20% = 30M. Presently, we have 1 million hospital beds is this country, which are 75% occupied at any given time by sick people without Covid-19. We have 45,000 intensive care unit beds and about 160,000 ventilators. This is according to the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins. The death rate for the flu is 0.1%, for Covid-19, it is estimated at 1.0%, 10 times as lethal, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, NIAID director. Between 30,000 and 61,000 people in the USA have died from the flu in recent years out of about 31M who became ill. So if we average deaths out to 45,000 per year and if 149.5M became ill, there would be 217,016 deaths from the flu. And if Covid-19 is 10 times more lethal, we are looking at possibly 2.17M people in this country dying from Covid-19 this year. 2,170,000 people.

View Diet Calendar, 13 March 2020:
1301 kcal Fat: 64.53g | Prot: 62.99g | Carbs: 125.61g.   Breakfast: Strawberries, Nectarine. Lunch: London Pub Malt Vinegar, Fresh Gourmet Crispy Jalapenos Lightly Salted, Soy Sauce, Bolthouse Farms Cilantro Avocado Yogurt Dressing, HEB Picante Salsa, Radish, Bell Peppers, Cauliflower, Shallots, Tomatoes, Cucumber (Peeled), Lettuce. Dinner: Cooked Turnip (from Fresh, Fat Added in Cooking), Corned Beef Brisket (Cured), Russet Potatoes (Flesh and Skin), Cooked Green Cabbage (Fat Not Added in Cooking), Cooked Carrots. Snacks/Other:  Water. more...

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Comments 
To whom should I listen to then? What source would you suggest? 
13 Mar 20 by member: silkian
Tim, of the 330 million Americans, how many are over 80, have pre-existing conditions, or are smokers?  
13 Mar 20 by member: Erquiaga
Let me repeat...Sal Alinsky - Rule 3: Whenever possible, go outside the expertise of the enemy. Look for ways to increase insecurity, anxiety and uncertainty. 
13 Mar 20 by member: Erquiaga
For sure, Erquiaga. Keeping as positive as possible is good.  
13 Mar 20 by member: melissatwa
Well, I am not insecure, I am not anxious, and I am not uncertain. Because I read the information of scientists I trust. I do believe China is not honest in their reporting ... which should have made other countries even more suspicious and take precaution right away. 
13 Mar 20 by member: silkian
Follow the CDC. WHO suffers from heavy political influence.  
13 Mar 20 by member: Erquiaga
silkian, but they didn't. It was kept from other countries for almost three months. Our current president was highly criticized when he but the first restrictions in place, then criticized again for not acting sooner. Do what you think is best. This is simply my belief and my opinion. 
13 Mar 20 by member: Erquiaga
Reading all the information, misinformation, statistics, opinions, etc. ad nauseum - especially on FB - and it's to be expected during a crisis such as this. I understand that there will be reactions from the public that span the spectrum of human fear (or lack thereof). What I think is disappointing is blame/shade being thrown in the name of a particular political party.  
13 Mar 20 by member: Pixie722
Silkian— follow. CDC, NIH (National Institute for Health). Nothing wrong with reading stuff on the internet but pay attention to who they are naming as sources. As a functional adult you are will want to stay as informed and up to date as possible.. It’s all about the sources they are quoting. Then read those sources yourself. Keep politics out of it— this thing is evolving. It is a new virus to humans and much is yet unknown and info is being updated constantly. Meantime, WASH YOUR HANDS, do not panic, keep a physical distance between yourself and other people. Do not touch your face with dirty hands. 
13 Mar 20 by member: Kenna Morton
Kenna, thanks for NIH, Dr. Tony Fauci is the best! 
13 Mar 20 by member: Erquiaga
Actually, it's a new strain of Coronavirus. I have an old container of Clorox wipes in the garage. On the back it lists the Coronavirus. 
13 Mar 20 by member: Erquiaga
New cases here are dominated by people who visited the US in the last 10 days . I am limited to experts in the media here but it may be that there are more people around with viruses than the official numbers are saying right now. I am hoping that this is not the case though 
13 Mar 20 by member: liv001
I agree that it should be non-political.  
13 Mar 20 by member: tatauu22
tatauu, apolitical = non political  
13 Mar 20 by member: Erquiaga
Tapping out. Love you all. ♥️  
13 Mar 20 by member: Erquiaga
Great points, 😱🌶 
13 Mar 20 by member: acomandr
Kenna too 🤙🏼 
13 Mar 20 by member: acomandr
And Melissa 🤙🏼 
13 Mar 20 by member: acomandr
I scan it all. That said, CDC guidance is one of the initial standards. Be aware, careful, informed, mindful, n safe! 
13 Mar 20 by member: acomandr
Be cautious of computer models - at best they are probability guesses. Typically they get better with more data and right now there is not that much data. So, as the weeks go by I am sure the models will become more accurate but for now be cautious of their predictions.  
13 Mar 20 by member: perks54

     
 

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