I think I am the same as you - I go back and forth - up 3 lbs, down 2. I don't worry much about the day to day changes but track the trends. There are some things that I have found surprising that cause weight gain - I do weight training now, so when I have a heavy workout (leg day) our muscles actually retain water and can show an increase on the scale; salty foods cause the water retention. Your trend looks great! We are pretty similar, so I think you are doing well. Keep it up!